Global Markets Rebound After Early Week Panic; Indian Benchmarks Open Gap-Up

The global financial landscape is attempting to shake off the geopolitical chills of the past five days. We’ve moved from “panic stations” to a “relief rally,” though the underlying structural tensions—particularly in energy—remain a thorn in the side of this recovery.

US & Europe (March 4th)

After a punishing start to the week, Wall Street and the Eurozone decided that the economy might be sturdier than the headlines suggest.

Wall Street: The S&P 500 added 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq led the charge with a 1.3% jump. This was fueled by a stellar services sector report showing the fastest expansion since 2022. It seems investors are betting that “Main Street” can outrun “Middle East” volatility for now.

Europe: The Europe Index rose 1.4%. The sentiment shift was palpable as the markets parred losses after the Trump administration hinted at securing energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Asia’s Morning Surge (March 5th)

Asia is catching the baton and running with it this morning.

The South Korean Miracle: After yesterday’s historic 12% plunge, the Kospi has roared back with an 11% surge.

Regional Strength: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is trading up 2.8%, with the Nikkei also finding positive territory as the yen’s safe-haven appeal took a breather.

Commodities: Gold and “Black Gold” on the Move

Despite the equity rally, the “fear trade” hasn’t fully exited the building.

Crude Oil: Brent is holding firm above $82/barrel, up for the fifth consecutive day. While equity traders are optimistic, oil traders are still pricing in a significant “war premium” as supply routes remain precarious.

Gold: Bullion is maintaining its luster, trading near $5,170/oz. Even as risk appetite returns, institutional players are keeping gold in their “go-bags” as a hedge against potential escalation.

Indian Markets Open Gap-Up

As expected, Indian benchmarks opened gap-up. The world is breathing a sigh of relief, but India is still catching its breath. Expect a gap-up opening followed by a tug-of-war between “value hunters” (DIIs) and “exit seekers” (FIIs). Until the Nifty convincingly reclaims the 24,800 mark, consider any rally as an opportunity to lighten positions rather than a signal to go “all-in.” All three, Nifty 50, Bank Nifty and Sensex remain in an ’oversold” zone, ripe for a bounce. But the Rupee weakness, oil price hike, looming shortage of cooking gas and LNG and the risk to 1 crore Indian expats working or living in the Middle East are all geoeconomic risks that are weighing on Indian markets.

Also read: India Reviews Energy Supply: 25-Day Oil Stock Amid Middle East Conflict