Kashmir’s Fragile Calm Under Siege: Pakistan’s Dirty War Rekindles Fear with Foreign Terrorists and Suicide Bombing Threats

Intelligence agencies have issued a major alert in Jammu and Kashmir, warning that Pakistan-backed groups are preparing to resume large-scale terrorist activities before the onset of winter. Inputs are chilling: Delhi-style suicide bombings using moving vehicle IEDs could be carried out to target civilians and security forces, raising fears of a fresh wave of violence in the Valley. 

The warning comes amid ongoing investigations into the Red Fort car blast in Delhi, which the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has confirmed was carried out by a suicide bomber using a vehicle-borne IED, killing 13 people and injuring dozens. Kashmir's link to that attack has deepened concerns that similar tactics may now be deployed in the Valley.

Contrary to expectations following the destruction of terror camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and inside Pakistan, the recent Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor have swelled the ranks of active terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir to 131. Of these, 122 are of Pakistani origin, and only nine are local recruits, with just three active in the Kashmir Valley itself. 

The majority of local terrorists are now concentrated in Jammu’s Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal ranges. This marks a sharp escalation from March 2025, when only 59 Pakistani terrorists were active in the region. Among them, 21 belonged to Jaish-e-Mohammed, 21 to Lashkar-e-Taiba, three to Hizb-ul-Mujahideen and 14 to other groups. The sudden surge indicates Pakistan’s renewed push to destabilize the region through infiltration, even as local recruitment has been virtually eliminated.

Operation Sindoor, India’s military response in May 2025, was launched after the barbaric Pahalgam attack on April 22, when Pakistan-backed terrorists stormed Baisaran Valley and killed 26 people in front of their families. The attack was marked by extreme brutality, with victims executed at close range, clearly intended to incite communal violence. 

India’s retaliation targeted terror bases in Pakistan and PoK, destroying infrastructure and sending a strong message. Yet Pakistan responded with drone strikes and shelling of religious sites in Jammu and Poonch, indicating its willingness to escalate and exploit sectarian fault lines.

Despite India’s “zero terror” policy and the near-total dismantling of local recruitment networks, Pakistan’s army-backed groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and their proxies like The Resistance Front (TRF) and People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) have successfully infiltrated terrorists into Indian territory. 

These proxies are not merely rebranded outfits but part of Pakistan’s hybrid warfare strategy. TRF is essentially Lashkar-e-Taiba under a new name, while PAFF is linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed. Both operate not only on the ground but also in cyberspace, cloaking jihadist agendas under secular narratives of resistance, spreading propaganda, and claiming attacks online. This digital-terror nexus complicates India’s counterterrorism operations, giving Pakistan plausible deniability while keeping the Valley unstable.

A senior security official admitted that while the OGW (Over Ground Worker) network in the Valley was dismantled and local terrorists eliminated, the vacuum has now been filled with new, unknown recruits who were not previously on the radar. 

This new network of foreign operatives and shadowy OGWs poses a grave challenge to joint security forces, who had earlier celebrated the erosion of local support as a turning point in the war against terror. The unofficial words reflect the frustration of a security establishment that has achieved tactical victories but now faces a strategic shift engineered across the border.

Data available with security forces paints a grim picture of the human cost. Sixty-one terrorists were killed in 2024 and sixty in 2023. Of these, forty-five were killed in encounters and operations inside Jammu and Kashmir, while sixteen were eliminated during infiltration attempts along the Line of Control. 

Twenty-one of the killed terrorists were Pakistani nationals. Yet the toll was not limited to terrorists: twenty-eight civilians and sixteen security personnel also lost their lives during the same period. These figures reflect both the effectiveness of security operations and the tragic price paid by ordinary people and those tasked with defending them.

Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, Manoj Sinha, praised the Jammu and Kashmir Police for its meticulous investigation and quick response in dismantling a pan-India terror network allegedly headed by a group of “radicalised doctors.” He emphasized that the administration’s “360-degree approach to counter-terrorism with massive crackdowns on terror financing, narco-terror links, over-ground workers (OGWs), and sympathisers is focused on dismantling the entire support structure to terrorists.” 

Sinha added that coordinated efforts will ensure that “the remnants of the terror ecosystem are completely wiped out from Jammu and Kashmir,” reiterating a zero-tolerance policy against terrorism. This reflects the seriousness with which the government views the evolving threat and the determination to strike at every layer of the terror infrastructure.

The broader implications of this alert are sobering. The fact that Pakistani groups can still infiltrate fighters despite heightened vigilance along the Line of Control suggests that the infrastructure of terror across the border remains intact, supported and sustained by the Pakistani Army. The reliance on foreign fighters also reveals Pakistan’s desperation: with local recruitment at zero, the attempt to inject outsiders into the Valley is both a sign of weakness and a dangerous escalation. These terrorists, unfamiliar with the terrain and disconnected from local communities, may resort to more indiscriminate violence, increasing the risk to civilians.

At the same time, the spirit of the Jammu and Kashmir Police and security forces cannot be overlooked. Their ability to dismantle local networks, eliminate terrorists, and reduce recruitment to zero is a remarkable achievement in a valley long plagued by insurgency. Yet the new challenge requires fresh strategies. Intelligence coordination, technological surveillance, and community engagement will be critical in countering the threat posed by foreign fighters and their shadowy OGW networks. The battle is no longer just about encounters in forests or raids in villages; it is about anticipating the next move of an adversary that thrives on unpredictability and deception.

Sources with the intelligence have  further  warned that the threat is not confined to Kashmir alone. Alerts have been issued for Delhi, Mumbai, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, with agencies describing the situation as a “critical warning” and cautioning of a possible “long winter of terror” involving coordinated ‘Fidayeen’ assaults and drone-enabled strikes. The national dimension underscores that Pakistan’s proxy war is aimed not only at destabilizing Kashmir but at shaking India’s sense of security across multiple states.

As winter approaches, Kashmir braces for yet another test. The intelligence alert has cast a shadow over the Valley’s fragile calm, reminding its people that peace remains elusive as long as Pakistan continues to play dirty on Kashmir’s soul.

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