Kerala Polls: UDF Gains Ground As LDF Faces Anti-Incumbency, Poll Survey Suggests

Thiruvananthapuram: In the Kerala Assembly Elections, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) appears to be ahead of other political parties and alliances and is likely to dominate the elections, as per a latest poll survey. The survey has projected the UDF alliance to secure 88-92 seats in the 140-member House. The poll prediction is likely to upset the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), which is expected to win only 42-46 seats, reflecting a big decline from its traditional strongholds.

On the other hand, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win between 0 and 2 seats, indicating continued struggle in converting its vote base into assembly seats in the southern state.

The survey, conducted by Poll Mantra Intelligence, showed electoral outcome data in favour of the UDF. According to analysts, the anti-incumbency is emerging as the primary factor shaping voter preferences, with the UDF capitalising on the desire for change.

According to the poll survey data, the UDF's lead is reflected in its vote share, which stands at 41.5%, over 8 percentage points ahead of the LDF's 33.4%. The NDA trails at 17.2%, with others at 2.3%. Only 5.6% of voters remain undecided, indicating a largely locked-in voter preference.

Further, regionally, the UDF is also projected to dominate across all zones. In Malabar, which accounts for 60 seats, the survey gives the UDF 41-43 seats against 15-17 for the LDF. In Central Kerala (41 seats), the UDF is projected to win 25-26 seats, while the LDF may secure 12-13. Travancore (39 seats) remains the only region showing a relatively close contest, with UDF projected at 22-23 seats and LDF at 15-16.

The survey identifies "desire for change" as the top voting driver at 22.8%, followed by welfare schemes received at 17.6%. Furthermore, the party ideology and values influence 16.2% of voters, while leadership (CM face) matters to 14.6%. The past government performance influences 12.1% of voters, with local candidate influence at 9.4%.

On the question of preferred Chief Ministerial face, VD Satheeshan leads with 21.3% support, closely followed by incumbent CM Pinarayi Vijayan at 18.5%. Ramesh Chennithala is at 17.2%, while KC Venugopal has emerged as a strong contender at 15.1%. Former Union Minister Rajeev Chandrashekhar of the BJP trails at 9.6%.

The price rise and cost of living have emerged as the primary concern for Kerala voters at 24.5%, followed by jobs and youth out-migration (brain drain) at 20.2%. Together, economic stress factors account for nearly 45% of voter concerns. The corruption ranks third at 13%, followed by healthcare (10.8%) and issues related to drugs, alcoholism, and crime (10.5%).

The survey revealed that 44.1% of voters prioritise party over candidate, while 31.5% consider both equally important. Only 24.4% are driven primarily by individual candidates, indicating that state-level narratives are outweighing local equations. The voter commitment remains high, with 38.1% saying nothing will change their vote. However, economic situation (21.5%) and better local candidates (16.6%) remain potential swing factors.

The survey warned that the LDF's dependence on a single central figure creates “strategic vulnerability”, while the UDF benefited from "collective leadership advantage" with multiple communicators driving the narrative.

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